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larrytc

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World Series Win Probability Added Nov. 18th, 2009 @ 04:06 pm
This is just for the World Series itself. Maybe I'll run it for the entire playoffs at some point.

But basically, given two teams of equal strength, you can easily the "leverage" of a game - the difference in the win probability of a win and a loss. Given that and the WPA of players within a game, you can calculate the WSWPA of a player. Shocking nobody, the "leverage" is highest for game 7, 3-3, game 6, 3-2, game 5, 2-2, and so forth.

I ran the numbers for the current World Series, and Matsui was rightfully the MVP:

H Matsui 0.2523125
C Lee 0.1806875
J Damon 0.123375
A Rodriguez 0.121375
M Rivera 0.091625
A Pettitte 0.07425
P Feliz 0.0676875
D Marte 0.0588125
C Sabathia 0.0414375
R Madson 0.0376875
C Utley 0.0344375
J Posada 0.031375
C Park 0.0270625
C Ruiz 0.0256875
S Eyre 0.01925
N Swisher 0.016125
A Burnett 0.0148125
A Aceves 0.0065
J Werth 0.0035625
E Hinske 0.0035
D Jeter 0.002375
J Molina -0.0018125
B Bruney -0.0034375
P Coke -0.006125
M Teixeira -0.008875
B Myers -0.0105
S Victorino -0.011625
J Happ -0.01225
P Hughes -0.01325
E Bruntlett -0.0135
J Hairston -0.016625
M Stairs -0.0214375
D Robertson -0.023625
J Chamberlain -0.033625
M Cabrera -0.0375625
J Rollins -0.0455625
C Durbin -0.05
B Gardner -0.05325
B Francisco -0.05825
J Blanton -0.081375
R Ibanez -0.0878125
R Howard -0.0889375
P Martinez -0.11225
C Hamels -0.13125
R Cano -0.140125
B Lidge -0.17025

Matsui is responsible, by himself, a quarter of the World Series win. On the other end, poor Lidge gave away more than 1/6 of the World Series, and Cano is not far behind, which is not shocking if you were paying attention. And while Utley's power display was impressive, it wasn't even close, though there were whispers of giving it to Utley..
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6/4 Jun. 4th, 2009 @ 01:41 pm

There's quite a bit of media attention given to the events of 6/4.

I usually ignore most of the media around it.  Personally I feel like it's overplayed, but it is a necessity.

It happened 20 years ago.  Wow, 20 years is quite a long time.

I remember exactly where I was that day.  And a few things leading up to it.  Being in Hong Kong at the time, it was a front-row seat in the pocket of free media in the region.

Well, that's not entirely fair or accurate or true.  The Chinese media was relatively free at the time, and while there were concerns from HK about the coming handover of '97, things appeared to be changing - progress was made politically and economically.

And somewhere along the way, things changed.

It was a Saturday, June 3rd.  I was with family, going to a hiking trip on Landau Island.  It was fairly typical - walked around on trails and seeing the sights and chatting about things.  Transportation was not anywhere close to what is available nowadays, and it was not a day trip.  We stayed at a monastery that night, and we were split up - I was in a room with two bunk beds with my grandfather, my father, and my uncle.  It felt neat to be treated (somewhat) like an adult!

The next day we finished the hike, this time back to Hong Kong.  As you might expect, everybody was pretty shocked at what happened.  I was too young to understand enough to be afraid, but the atmosphere was notably different.

'97 seemed scarier than ever.

Along the way, the Chinese do not ask for political change anymore, nor do they appear to care for it.  Along the way, censorship is everywhere, nothing to see here.  Along the way..

It's not the only factor, but it is definitely one of those events that set off a series of events that..

I'm here now.

Current Mood: contemplativecontemplative

Jun. 1st, 2009 @ 01:58 am
For some reason, this blog is my home away from home, where my vacation commentary lives.

Red Nov. 12th, 2008 @ 07:18 pm
Since this was started as a blog about Topcoder, I'm just going to scream here:

I'm red!

Nearly 7 years, most of it in yellow, now I'm red.

Doesn't mean anything, per se, but I'll take it!
Current Mood: jubilantjubilant

Nov. 5th, 2008 @ 08:24 am
Four years ago, a friend told me to keep an open mind, to keep an open heart.

I was disappointed, disheartened.

Nonetheless, there was hope. Where else can you have a peaceful coup every four years?

This year, we succeeded. The road ahead of us will still be tough, but now there's hope that things will be done.

Change.
Current Mood: relievedrelieved
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» (No Subject)
Stumbling upon this entry; on Boing Boing:

"FM used an 8 and the other office I'm in just changed their system to a 7 due to the San Mateo police department getting all upset (and I don't blame them) about how many false calls there are to their system. "


Which brings me back to a story of a time long ago..

In 95-96, the internets was just starting up, and AOL was the newest thing on the block. Personally, I actually got my first modem in 94 and was playing around with BBS and stuff. (remember those Consumer books with a listing in the back?)

In any case, at some point, we started getting random phone calls - once in a blue moon at first, but soon it appeared that a dam bursted somewhere. These weren't crank calls, as there is usually silence on the other line. *69 didn't get very far either - we even got one of those caller id things, at a time when these were not common at all (and they tacked on 10$ a month, those bastards). Many numbers were "unlisted", but even the ones were able to contact were generally unhelpful as they were nearly as confused (but nowhere as frustrated as we were). This was going on at maybe 5-10 calls a day for several months, filling the house with anger, paranoia, and many other stressed emotions..

Coming before the ubiquity of cell phones, I actually got a cell phone out of it, as it was the only "reliable" way to call anywhere. Ah.

In either case, if you didn't figure it out by now, here's the punchline. Apparently, our number was something like 921-xxxx, and another popular number was 21x-xxxx. It took a long time to figure it out, since people didn't realize they were doing it? Why not?

Because that 21x-xxxx number was an AOL number. During the peak of '96. I guess the only reason there weren't more calls was because well, the number never worked, so people probably tried other things eventually. The *69 and call backs generally didn't help as people weren't even calling people, so were mostly surprised we called back, as they didn't technically make calls. We eventually found some luck with a very patient guy that was going through what was happening and then realized it. AOL had one of the "debugging" options to use a 9 prefix to see if it worked. Wonderful.

We got a number change, and everything was peaceful again.. (well, as peaceful as a house with two teens can be..)
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I think part of the reason why I've been blogging a bit about Singapore is because I'm here by myself - no one to make silly (and sometimes insightful) comments to, so I end up paying more attention.  Maybe.

Re:  Language Barrier

I think the numbers are something like 70% Chinese here in Singapore, which is why this city-state was ejected from Malaysia in the first place.  Unfortunately for me, they mostly speak Mandarin or some variation that I do not understand.  And the English here (or Singlish) is kind of awful, and gets worse away from the city center, which makes sense.


So, I went snowboarding in Snow City, which they claim to be a 3 story building.  It's about half a bunny, though maybe slightly steeper.  It's probably not as steep as things people usually go on, but it just _feels_ a bit steeper, partially because it's narrow enough that you can see the steepness, as opposed to getting lost in the background.

I fell a few times, as there were chunks of ice greeting me with surprise.  Not too bad over all, considering my last run was in March.

A run is about, 10 seconds at fast-ish speed, and maybe a little longer if you're cautious.  It's a nice enough place to have if it was in my backyard, but still good for keeping my legs a little fresh.  The dudes told me that on "expert"-er days, they put up boxes and rails.  I would've loved to play with that.

There were two pairs of other people, for a total of five people.  The short runs essentially mean that you can wait for the person in front of you finish without really waiting all that much.  There were a couple of elderly skiers who just kept on going, and there were two snowboarding newbies that were taking lessons.  In all, everyone appeared to enjoyed themselves, and all is well.

Oh ya, it was -7 degree C inside, which is about 19 degrees F.  I actually rented a jacket, but it turned out to be mostly unnecessary.  I guess I'm cool like that.  (No?)
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I guess it's the first time I've been in an unfamiliar non-American city for years, and definitely one with very stable internet access.. (working for most of the day..)

Most Singaporeans speak English, to some varying degree.  I guess most major cities will employ people who speak English, to some varying degree.  Nonetheless, all the signs are in English, which is, at the very least, a great help.

I don't think I've been an entirely unfamiliar area in quite some time.  Korea was 4 years ago, the last time that the language barrier would be a problem.  The signs of names of places are in traditional Chinese there though, so the barrier is not as high.

You can also argue that Scotland had a higher language barrier - while English, the accent was so thick that it was mostly difficult trying to communicate.  It was much easier with the British.

In either case, I went to the Night Safari here last night.  Supposed to be unique and one of its kind.  It was pretty strange in a cool, discovering kind of way - all the animals we know and love in a different light.  Or lack off.  (Not clever enough for you?  ;))

It was neat, even though mostly, it was just of things sleeping.  The lighting was created to the same ambience of the moonlight, to not disturb the animals.  Needless to say, flash photography was frown upon, as the park staff is eager to let me know multiple times.  Mostly, the animals do what I do - sleep at night.  Well, maybe I don't get enough sleep at night, but that's another story.  It was slightly disappointing, and while I kept trying to get some pictures of the animals to do something, it was not to be.

I did get a few movies, of me describing a mostly dark scene.  The verdict when I finally view it, but if I had to guess, you might as well as look at pitch black stuff and listen to Larry talk about random stuff.

There was a part where you get to play with fruit bats, and they were flying randomly, eating random things that I hope are fruit.

I'll check the logs to see how long I took, though it was meant to be more than an hour long.  It was a bit rushed for me since I took longer than expected to get there, and didn't want to leave after all the trains stopped running.  Still, I got enough of an idea of what it was about.

It's a different perspective, and probably one that I can only bring home with vivid words.  Maybe with a promise to revisit in the future..
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F1 is here, and sadly I'm going to miss it.  Apparently it's a huge thing, but being American, it means nothing to me anyhow.  Except for cars going really fast, which is always good, right?

On the flip side, it means tons of roads and stuff are closed.  And I'll probably have to leave for the airport just a little bit earlier just in case..
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Threw up all night the "dinner" I had last night.  There goes the attempt to be cultural and look for local goodies and all that stuff.  Maybe next time.

As if Larry needs any more stretched analogies..

So I was walking back to the hotel from work yesterday.  I took the cab in the morning to work, because I didn't know the way (nor a map) and was kind of running late because my alarm clock was set to AM but the clock was set to PM.  Wasn't too long of a route, traffic considering, so I easily memorized the route the cab took and plotted it in my head.

Naturally, my memory is not what I think or hope it would be, and missing a right turn somewhere, I walked for a bit until I recognized that I no longer recognized anything.  I found my way eventually, with the aid of the address written on the back of a napkin.  Probably could've gotten there much earlier if I remembered I had it.

What it did cost was that it basically detoured my perfect plan for the evening by about an hour.  Since this was already in the evening, combined with my experience with cities worldwide, made the prospect a bit gloom.  You see, in most cities, every single thing closes at some point in the night, whether it's 8 or 9 or 10 or whatever is really cultural.  It's true in Hong Kong, it's true in New York, it's true almost everywhere.  Of course, there are exceptions, but that usually only comes with knowing where or what to look for.

During my lost hour, I did mentally noted various 24-hour food places, mostly your regular fine dining such as McDonalds and Burger King.  Still, you never know..

In either case, I got back to my hotel, changed, and popped right back out for that local cuisine, which might or might not exist.  But first, I went to the Merlion Park - the symbol of Singapore.  It was actually a bit out of the way, but it seems necessary, even if I'm usually anti-tourist traps.  Surprisingly, in a city where everyone's hawking stuff, the park and its intermediate area was mostly hawking free.  A bit of surprising pleasantness.

Eventually I settled down to what appears to be a cheap Malaysian fast food place and ate some noodles with eggs and tofu.  Mistake number k.

With the aftereffects not appearing for another hour or two, I walked around slightly disappointed that I would have to cut one of the places out of the loop.  Instead, I walked right into where I was looking for - a flea market so I can pick up random goodies for people.  Apparently it was late, but barely earlier enough that it was still open.

The joy of finding what you don't expect to find!

And then I went back to the hotel, watched some TV (including the classic Steve Chow's The Chinese Odyssey) and threw up half my weight.
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